Redbird Ramblings

I have heard the preaching of reverend redbird and i have been saved! i saw cardinals diaspora and play a hard 9 switch to wordpress, so Redbird Ramblings is also making a change for the better. i have moved to www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com , come and see my new blog, its great, at least for me! sorry for the inconvienence! please update your links accordingly, and thank you!

play a hard 9 has moved to wordpress, now it is reborn as reverend redbird (great new look!). also, a new cards blog has launched, it is called "Bird Droppings". this new blog has just been launched and might take a couple of days to get things in order, so please be patient.

i play fantasy baseball on yahoo sports. im in the cardinals diaspora league.
here are the list of the players i drafted:

postion players and bench
B.McCan-catcher (atl)
S.Hillenbrand-1B (tor)
M.Giles-2B (atl)
K.Youkilis-3B (bos)
J.Hardy-SS (mil)
J.Edmonds-OF (STL)
K.Griffey Jr.-OF (cin)
G.Jenkins-OF (mil)
N.Swisher-Utilityman (oak)
M.ordonez-BN (det)
N.Johnson-BN (wash)

Pitchers
M.Mulder-SP (STL)
D.Haren-SP (oak)
E.Gagne-RP (lad)
A.Burnett-P (tor)
J.Garland-P (chi.w)
K.Wood-SP,RP (chi.c)
K.Calero-RP (oak)
D.Wheeler-RP (hou)

Pretty good roster i would say, i did not even draft these guys. i set up a pre-draft ranking and they automatically got drafted to my team. i totally forgot about the draft time. i still ended up with a good roster though. i have a pretty good OF with Jed, KG Jr. and Jenkins. my pitching staff is pretty solid also. it was a very good draft overall. what do you think? i would like to get some feedback from you, the reader.

Cardinals Diaspora has moved. same great site, but with a new great look!
check it out, here is the new and improved Diaspora!

all photos are from stltoday.com/sports/cards

I saw a new article up on the cardinals main site. its Leach's Mailbag, he collects questions from fans and answers the most popular inquiries. he has a couple of good questions and answers on there. he predicts the division race to pan out like this:

2006 Regular season predictions
Matthew Leach
"My predicted order of finish is almost identical to last year -- Cardinals, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Reds."

Cards4life
lets see, my prediction for the division race is this: cards, brew crew, stros, cubbies, bucs and last but not least, the red legs.

Matthew Leach
ok, now on to how many games the cardinals will win this year.
Leach's prediction: "I expect them to win in the neighborhood of 93-95 games and make the postseason. "

Cards4life
my prediction is a little more optimistic, here goes: i predict the cardinals will win 95-105 games. bold prediction is'nt it?

also, he answers a question about so taguchi being a starting outfielder:

"I like Taguchi, and I understand why fans enjoy watching him play and why coaches and his managers appreciate him so much. He's fundamentally sound, he hustles, he runs the bases well and he plays good defense. I get it.
But I'm not at all sold on him as a regular. Take a look at these numbers. A total of 35 NL outfielders received at least 400 plate appearances last year, including Taguchi, who had 424. Among those players, Taguchi ranked 33rd -- or third to last -- in on-base percentage and 29th -- seventh to last -- in slugging.
As a fourth outfielder and a defensive specialist, Taguchi is a valuable part of the team. As a starting corner outfielder, I think he doesn't offer enough offense. "

i totally agree with you there Mr. Leach, The So-man is best served on this cardinals club as being a fourth outfielder. he is great defensively, and can play all three outfield position. also, he is the best back up for Jed in center, after jimmy, he is the best defensive centerfielder on the club. i also agree with mr. leach that so just does not provide enough offense to be a starter, he does not have nearly enough power and does not get on base enough. i think larry bigbie will land the left field job.

Note: Mr. Leach, keep up the great work, looking forward to reading your next article. i really think you do a great job covering the cardinals.

today, i got to thinking about the bench and who would be the five players (0r six depending on if the cards decide to carry 12 pitchers or not) are going to be.
here are my five:

Gary Bennett (backup catcher)
So Taguchi (outfielder)
John Rodriguez (outfielder)
Deivi Cruz ( 3B, 2B)
Scott Spezio (3B, 2B, 1B, LF, RF)
????Rick Ankeil????? (LF, RF)

i really want Rick to make the team, but if Juan Mateo makes it as the 12th pitcher, the bench can only have 5 spots. i think Deivi Cruz should be cut since Spezio is a switch hitter, he can play all the positions that Cruz can plus the the corner outfield spots. So, that leaves room for one more spot, here is my adjusted bench:

Gary Bennett
So Taguchi
J-ROD/Johnny Load
Spezio
RICK ANKIEL

i think Ank can be a lefthanded power threat of the bench. i also think that he can make it as a starter in a year or two (you might thinking "what the heck is he smoking or drinking or both?"). well, i think Ank is a tremendous athlete, besides, he lead the cardinals minor leagues with 21 homeruns last year. i think he has tremendous potential, he just needs the opportunity. thats all my thoughts on Ankiel.

the St. Louis Cardinals have signed a switch hitting infielder according to matthew leach of stlcardinals.com:

"Spiezio coming to town: Switch-hitting infielder Scott Spiezio, formerly of the A's, Angels and Mariners, has agreed to a Minor League contract with the Cardinals and will report to camp. Spiezio has played more than 200 games each at first, second and third base in his big league career. He's a lifetime .253 hitter with a .324 on-base percentage and .414 slugging percentage. In 2005, he received 47 at-bats with the Mariners, hitting .064 with a home run".

here are scott spiezio's career stats.

1. tony la russa arrivings

2. Rick Ankiel taking hacks

3. yadier and albert taking a stroll

4. john gall hauling his stuff

Predicted batter: Yadier Molina

2005 stats(avg./hrs./rbi/sb)
.252/8/49/2

2006 stats predictions
.263/11/55/3

I present to you "Our starting catcher, Yadier Molina". we know what we are going to get from him defensively, one of the best catchers in the league and the best running game sniper in the majors. on the other hand, we dont know what we are going to ge offensively. he is only 23, so there is a lot of room for improvement. i expect his average to climb a little bit. he should draw more walks, and hit a couple of more homers. i think last year's stats would have been obviously better if had not gotten hit with a pitch on his hand in Arizona. also, i think he can hit a few more dingers, and collect a couple of more rbis. obviously, as we all know, Molina is no Lou Brock (and that's an understatement). he is slow, really slow, the slowest person i have ever seen in my life. thats why i think he is going to steal one more base. no one thinks he is going to attempt to steal because he is so slow. I thought John Mabry was slow, then i saw Molina run, man that was tough to see. i guess catchers are not supposed to be fast, but man is he slow. thats enough about his speed. he is the best defensive catcher in the NL, and whatever he contributes on the offensive side is a plus. at least thats how i feel. he should develop into pretty good hitter by the time he hits his prime (29-30 years old). if he ever gets to a line of .285/18/75/5 later on in his career, i would be thrilled. that would be out of this world, but for now i will take what ever i can get from Mr. Molina or as one of my fellow bloggers (i cant remember which one, sorry!) likes to call him "Gasolina".

Predicted batter: Larry bigbie

2005 stats(average/homeruns/rbi/sb)
.239/5/23/5

predicted 2006 stats
.275/23/76/8

Larry was injured for most of last year, so you have to expect him to do better than that. he is also was drafted number 1 by the orioles a while back, so they thought highly of him until he got injured. he should at least have good offensive production because he is in a very good lineup (at least in my opinion). it took me a while to come up with his stats because larry is an unkown quantity with a lot of potential. we dont know what we are going to get from him. in baltimore (a few years back), he hit 15 homeruns in the second half of that season, so i still dont know what to expect. after that great second half, he started slumping because of trade rumors that were going around about him (0r so he says). after that he got injured, traded to colorado, and injured again (i think thats how it went). also, walt had mentioned that he wanted to acquire bigbie last july at the trade deadline, but could not. so, the cards really dont know what to expect, they and the fans (us) will have to just wait and see what Bigbie can do. about his last name, bigbie. how long do you think it will take for mike shannon to call him "Big boy" instead of "Bigbie",........ we will see (lol). i bet it will not be long, probably a couple of weeks into the season (maybe even less time!).

many of my fellow cards bloggers have posted their thoughts about this issue. also, Ken Rosenthal has written a short article about Jimmy . lets get down to the question, should he stay or should he go? here are my two cents:

jimmy will get payed 12 million this year, and there is a club option for 10 million that can keep him around for next year. i think that the cards should extend his contract and lessen the annual salary like they did with izzy. here is my contract proposal. sometime this season, offer jim a two year extension paying him about 8 million a year. also, an option year for about 5-6 million, at that point (2009), he should be in his decline phase, so that should be enough for a declining but still above average veteran. as of today, i think he is still the best centerfielder in the game. i do not think that he has entered his decline phase yet. i think he still has 2 maybe three good years (.280-.290, 30-35, 90-110) in him. also, he is a sure hall of famer if he can get to 10 gold gloves, 400 homeruns, and 1300-1500 rbis. he is at 8 g.g., 331 hrs., and 998. so, he needs about 2-3 more seasons to get to those. also, i think he would like to win a ring with the cards, and as of right now, i dont think the cards can win it all without jim edmonds. he also has stated many times that he would like to end his career as a cardinal, which would be great. those are my thoughts on the Jim Edmonds issue.

Today, ill analyze the 6th spot in the cards lineup and who will bat there.

My guess: Juan Encarnacion

2005 stats (average/home runs/runs batted in/stolen bases)
.287/16/76/6

predicted 2006 stats
.290/23/88/10

I have not seen Juan play much, but when I did catch him on t.v. a couple of times he seems like a pretty good player to me. He is NOT the impact player cards nation wanted in the outfield, he is NOT a big Bopper or Thumper, that we wanted to see signed. He cannot hit 35 to 40 homeruns a year and drive in 100+ rbis in a season (at least he has not done it yet, career highs in hr: 24, rbi:94). He is an above average, five-tool outfielder with decent pop for a guy that plays rightfield. I really wish the cardinals would have signed Brian Giles, I mean he only cost San Diego 3 years and 30 Million, that's not much for a player of his caliber, I thought he was going to make a lot more money than he did. Back to Juan, you get what you pay for, I guess. So, Juan should put up close to career numbers batting in this lineup. All he had in Florida was Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Delgado. Here, he has the MV3 plus the pest Eckstien (I mean that in a good way) to protect him. I think he will do better offensively this season than last because there are more prominent and established hitters in this lineup. He also should be above average defensively, and he is the Cardinals starting rightfielder for the 2006 season.

f.a. pickup
sidney ponson

rotation
Chris Carpenter
Mark Mulder
Jeff Suppan
Jason Marquis
Anthony Reyes/Sidney Ponson

the first four spots of the rotation are set. carp is the ace, i expect him to perform close to last year's standards, but there has to be some drop-off from a cy young season. i expect mulder to do better this year than last. first, he should already have a good feel for the nl since he's been in it for a whole year. second, this is his contract year, he's a free agent after this season. he should want to put up good stats so he can get an insane contract (even if he puts up average stats, e.g. 15-10, 3.9 , 180 innings pitched, he probably still get a 4-yr deal worth about 40 mill.). supp is solid, he is also a big game pitcher and keeps the team in every game that he starts. he is also a free agent after this year. Marquis is pretty good if stops being hardheaded (& listens to dunc) & uses his slider 90% of the time and does not fall in love with his breaking pitch. an added bonus is that he is a very good hitter. he will also be a free agent after this year. the fifth spot i would give to Reyes because i believe that he is better than ponson. i think ponson is best suited being in the bullpen.

Biggest concern: 3/5 or possibly 4/5 (depending on who gets the 5th spot in the rotation) will be free agents after this season. if mulder gets to free agency and is not offered an extension before the season is over, im about 80% sure he will not resign with the cardinals. i think walt can sign supp, but would probably have to cough up a couple of extra millions and maybe an extra year. marquis, probably not, he is too expensive & he already cashed in for more than 5 mill. this year, thats too much for a .500 pitcher. ponson, i dont really care about, he's just here to be competition for reyes, and probably be in the bullpen. i would be surprised if he made the rotation this year.

theres an article up today on the post dipatch about the 21 players that the cardinals invited to spring training. most of them are minor league players, and some of those players are from the cardinals minor league system. the article points out those who are favorites to win spots on the 25-man roster (jeff nelson), and some veterans that have been around the block couple of times (dave berg, brian daubach).
the most interesting part is sometimes, these veterans that have the upper hand on the minor leaguers dont perform will enough and surprisingly dont make the ball club. they get replaced by minor leaguers with some potential. the last noted s.t. invitee to make the roster that was not the favorite was abraham nunez, a middle infielder who outperformed the competition (plus, he could bat left-handed, which tony really likes). by the way, the bo hart experiment from last year had me laughing so hard that i fell out of my chair. how could a career right-handed hitter learn to hit from the left side in 4-5 weeks? i think bo said that that was the first time that he ever tried batting left handed. now, i hear bo is a bartender in tennesse somewhere (he got non-tendered early this year by the cardinals, see the pun, lol). anyway, back to the story. the article also says that a couple of spots on the roster will be competed for (duh, isnt that the case every year?), most notably left field, 2nd base, and another right-handed reliever in the bullpen. also, a couple of spots on the bench. dont forget, the simo-man (Simontacchi) was a non-roster invitee that made the club and helped the cardinals win the division (he signed a non-roster deal with an invitation to s.t. with the cubs, see the irony). what about Pulse (bill pulsipher)? he made the team last year, for about a week (he got injuried, was sent down and never came back). you never know, there might be a couple of surprises, well see, thats what spring training is for. im pulling for Ankiel to be our left-handed power bat of the bench and the back up rightfielder(im not kidding, im serious). i like ankiel for some reason and i want him to do will and make the team, i dont know why. i think he can be a legitimate major-league power hitter, something like mabry, but hopfully with more contact. maybe even something more, in a couple of years, he can be a regular in the outfield (thats a great, wild and crazy dream isnt it?). i hope that happens!

i started thinking about the lineup today and what it should look like. so what should it look like? here is my projected lineup:

Eckstien

Spivey/Bigbie

Pujols

Edmonds/Rolen

Rolen/Edmonds

Encarnacion

Bigbie/Molina

Molina/Bigbie

Pitcher

eck is lock as the leadoff hitter. i like spivey as the second hitter because he gets on base and has some pop in his bat (not much, but decent). maybe you would consider bigbie because he is a lefty and its good to mix the lineup in a right/left/right/left pattern. the problem is we dont know how bigbie will hit. also, i have read scouting reports that say he hits better in the bottom of the lineup because there is no/little pressure on him to perform. the third spot is obvious, Great Prince Albert. the cleanup spot, i cant make my mind on. either edmonds or rolen. if edmonds is hitting (.290/.300), he is better in the cleanup spot, but if he is average (around .270/.280) i like him in the fifth spot. Over at viva el birdos, lboros has done research and it shows that edmonds is at his best offensively when hitting in the fifth spot. so, i guess just flip a coin to decide who to hit cleanup and 5th. i like encarnacion in the 6th spot, i think he is going to do will there, just a gut feeling. one can make an argument for molina hitting 7th because whenever he gets on, he is too slow for pitchers to bunt over, and he cannot score from second on a single by a pitcher if he hits a double. so i could go with an experimental lineup and have molina bat 7th and bigbie bat 8th, because bigbie can hit for extra bases. the pitcher spot should obviously be 9th, unless its jason marquis pitching that day, in this case, you can bat marquis where ever you want. those are all of my thoughts about the batting order.

the #5 slot in the lineup will probably be the most important one, it will be the biggest question mark going into the season because of Rolen's health. we dont know if he is fully healed or if he will ever get back to 2004 form.

2005 stats (average/home runs/runs batted in/stolen bases)

.235/5/28/1

predicted 2006 stats

fully healed Rolen: .295/35/105/13

still aching Rolen: .280/28/90/7

like i said yesterday, Rolen is the big X-factor on this 06 ball club. if he has fully healed from shoulder surgery, gets his bat speed and batting eye back, then we don't have anything to worry about. BUT, if he is not fully healed, doesn't have the bat speed, and looks like he is in pain every time he swings and misses, then STL we have a PROBLEM! id bet on the first choice though. i think he will be almost fully healed if not fully healed by opening day. if he can put up anything close to what he did in 04, the cards should be fine. without him, we are just going to go the playoffs again and lose. with rolen in the lineup, its another year of contending for the 10th championship in franchise history. one can argue that if we had Rolen healthy during last year's playoffs, we would have beat houston an gone to the W.S. again. oh yeah, back to the stats. Rolen's career stats show that wherever he bats (4th or 5th spot in the lineup), he does pretty well, and the production from both spots of the lineup is pretty similar to one another also. he should be fine with Jimmy batting in front of him and Juan Enc.

Jim Edmonds had a down year last year, but dont expect that to repeat.
2005 stats (average/home runs/runs batted in/stolen bases)

.263/29/89/5

predicted 2006 stats

.295-.305/35-40/100-120/10-15

offensive numbers for J.E. are harder to predict because one never knows where he is going to bat in the lineup. if he bats second (which i doubt), he would probably have the lower stat predictions. if he bats cleanup probably have a line of .300/38/110 /10. i think jimmy is best suited for the 5th spot in the lineup. he seems to be more comfortable there, or so says his production throughout his career (lboros over at viva el birdos did a study on jimmy and thats what they concluded and i trust them). he performs best offensively in the 5th spot, but i think tony will hit him cleanup because he likes the rightie/leftie/rightie/leftie pattern. i do not think that jimmy is on his decline phase, i think he still has about 2 to 3 very good years left in him. if he bats fifth in the order, his line should be as follows: .305/40/120/15 (or something close to this). you may think that im a little too optimistic about #15's production, your probably right because he is my favorite player. id like him to finish his career as a cardinal. if he can get at least two more gold gloves (he has 8 right know), get to 400 career home runs (he's at 331), raise his batting average to around .300 career wise (its .291 right now) and get to 1300-1500 career rbis (he's at 998), i think he should be a lock for the hall of fame. i know thats a lot of "ifs", but i have a lot of confidence in jimmy, so i have the right to be optimistic (at least in my opinion). later, the 5th spot, or as i and many other cards fans like to call it, the X-factor to the cardinals hopes of winning the 10th world series in franchise history.

Busch stadium III will be the house that PUJOLS built, just like Yankee stadium is the house that Babe built.

2005 stats (average/home runs/rbis/stolen bases)

.330/41/117/16

predicted 2006 stats

.335/50/133/15

what can you say about Albert's first five years in the majors, WOW! he is a career .332 hitter who already has 201 long balls in the timespan of 5 majorleague seasons. everyone has to realize that he is not even at his prime yet, that'll take about 4 to 5 years to get here (his prime should be around the age of 30 or 31). i expect Albert to finally get to 50 dingers and probably eclipse that mark. his batting average should stay about the same. the rbi total has nowhere to go but up, after that AAA lineup the cardinals put out last year, he should collect at least 125 rbis. his stolen bases should be about the same, and by they way, he's going to be better defensively! i smell a gold glove coming soon! watch your backs Babe, Barry and Hank because here comes the GREAT PRINCE ALBERT! (man, i love to say/type that!)

today, the discussion is the offensive production of the 2nd spot in the lineup.

2005 stats( average/home runs/rbis/stolen bases)

bigbie .239/5/23/5

spivey .232/7/24/9

predicted 2006 stats

bigbie .295/18/75/10

spivey .300/15/60/15

both spivey and bigbie had injury problems during the 2005 season. bigbie seems to have more power and extra-base potential that spivey, but spivey is more of a contact hitter and offers more of a running game because he is faster. i would prefer spivey in the 2 hole because i think you need someone that gets on base with occasional pop, and some speed. also, it is noted that bigbie is a better down the order guy (6th, 7th, 8th spots) than early in the lineup. when there is less pressure on him, bigbie seems to do alot better. it does not matter who bats in front of the great Pujols though, either spivey or bigbie should have career bests or near to their career bests. either is going to get alot of fastballs right down the pipe, and they should know what to do with them.tlr's argument for putting bigbie in the second spot (if he does in fact put him there) would be that he likes to have some pop in the #2 hole and that he likes to mix the lineup as such: rightie, leftie, rightie leftie (presuming edmonds bats cleanup).

this series will list last year's offensive statistics for each player in the lineup and then give a prediction on how the player is going to do in 2006. the categories are: average, home runs, runs batted in & stolen bases.

Today: leadoff man David Eckstien

2005 stats: .294 avg., 8 hr., 61 rbi, 11 sb

2006 prediction: .280 avg., 5 hr., 50 rbi, 15 sb

last year was a career year for cardinal shortstop and leadoff man david eckstien. i dont think this year is going to be as good. there are a couple of reasons why. one, he is a year older, thats bound to have some effect on him (just a hunch, i have no way of proving this). two, he probably will not have a scary hitter batting behind him ( no Edmonds / Walker), but rather a guy like him with a bit more power and more strikeout totals (Spivey). some of my blogger colleagues have discussed this subject (how eckstien's offensive stats will decline), but i do not think that it is going to be a dramatic drop off from last year. he should only drop off about 15 points or so in batting average, a couple of homers, and about 10 rbis. i think his stolen bases will increase because i think tlr can hit and run with spivey batting second (or bigbie/j-rod) or just have a more aggressive running game due to having two contact hitters in the first two spots in the lineup. so, it wont be that much of a decline from last year, but if the #2 hitter has a very good year, count on Eck to match or exceed what he did last year. that's it for today, tomorrow, the number two hitter, Junior Spivey.

i'll be using this blog from now on. before i was posting on www.xanga.com/cards4life , but ill probably shut that down.