A Slugger or A Windmill: estimating the offensive numbers of the Cardinal lineup
this series will list last year's offensive statistics for each player in the lineup and then give a prediction on how the player is going to do in 2006. the categories are: average, home runs, runs batted in & stolen bases.
Today: leadoff man David Eckstien
2005 stats: .294 avg., 8 hr., 61 rbi, 11 sb
2006 prediction: .280 avg., 5 hr., 50 rbi, 15 sb
last year was a career year for cardinal shortstop and leadoff man david eckstien. i dont think this year is going to be as good. there are a couple of reasons why. one, he is a year older, thats bound to have some effect on him (just a hunch, i have no way of proving this). two, he probably will not have a scary hitter batting behind him ( no Edmonds / Walker), but rather a guy like him with a bit more power and more strikeout totals (Spivey). some of my blogger colleagues have discussed this subject (how eckstien's offensive stats will decline), but i do not think that it is going to be a dramatic drop off from last year. he should only drop off about 15 points or so in batting average, a couple of homers, and about 10 rbis. i think his stolen bases will increase because i think tlr can hit and run with spivey batting second (or bigbie/j-rod) or just have a more aggressive running game due to having two contact hitters in the first two spots in the lineup. so, it wont be that much of a decline from last year, but if the #2 hitter has a very good year, count on Eck to match or exceed what he did last year. that's it for today, tomorrow, the number two hitter, Junior Spivey.
Today: leadoff man David Eckstien
2005 stats: .294 avg., 8 hr., 61 rbi, 11 sb
2006 prediction: .280 avg., 5 hr., 50 rbi, 15 sb
last year was a career year for cardinal shortstop and leadoff man david eckstien. i dont think this year is going to be as good. there are a couple of reasons why. one, he is a year older, thats bound to have some effect on him (just a hunch, i have no way of proving this). two, he probably will not have a scary hitter batting behind him ( no Edmonds / Walker), but rather a guy like him with a bit more power and more strikeout totals (Spivey). some of my blogger colleagues have discussed this subject (how eckstien's offensive stats will decline), but i do not think that it is going to be a dramatic drop off from last year. he should only drop off about 15 points or so in batting average, a couple of homers, and about 10 rbis. i think his stolen bases will increase because i think tlr can hit and run with spivey batting second (or bigbie/j-rod) or just have a more aggressive running game due to having two contact hitters in the first two spots in the lineup. so, it wont be that much of a decline from last year, but if the #2 hitter has a very good year, count on Eck to match or exceed what he did last year. that's it for today, tomorrow, the number two hitter, Junior Spivey.
